Why has North Korea never had a military coup?

North Korea is one of the most isolated and authoritarian countries in the world. The Kim family has been in power since its founding after World War II. The country's system of governance, based on the Juche ideology, emphasizes self-reliance and loyalty to the leader. The foundation for this was laid by Kim Il Sung. It was further strengthened by her son, Kim Jong Il, and is now ruled by the same family's heir, Kim Jong Un. As you may know, no dissent is tolerated here, and the supreme leader holds absolute power. Despite harsh punishments for dissenters over food and financial crises and reports of widespread human rights abuses by defectors, there is little prospect of this regime changing. The West has long hoped that North Korea would break away from Chinese and Russian influence and adopt a democracy like its southern neighbors. But it never seemed possible. So the question is, why has there never been a successful popular uprising or military coup to change the regime? I mean, when was the last time you heard of a coup attempt against the Kim family's absolute power? The Kim family has ruled the country for more than 70 years. During that time, there have been several famines, economic crises, and leadership failures. Now you might ask, why haven't there been any successful uprisings or coups despite all the suffering of the citizens? Motadag answers that it requires a political system that encourages greater loyalty to the leader than any other system. Also, when and how a military coup occurs is an important issue. In a typical coup d'état, the military or a section of the military marches on the capital or other important government buildings and demands the resignation of leaders or seizes power by force. These are usually led by disgruntled generals who are backed by members of the government or even foreign governments, and depending on the context, may also have the support of the general public. For example, in the successful coups in Mali in 2020 or Burkina Faso in 2022, the military arrested the president on the orders of high-ranking military officers. Citizens who were dissatisfied with the policy failures of that government also provided moral support. So why doesn't this formula work in North Korea? First, the Kim family, especially in recent decades, has brutally removed the country's political elite to avoid coups. Whenever the political class and military leaders collectively feel that they are being underestimated or that the Supreme Leader needs to be replaced, the risk of a coup becomes very real. But if these parts of the North Korean elite are killed or imprisoned at regular intervals, the problem is largely solved. For example, in February 2023, when North Korea celebrated the 75th anniversary of the founding of its Korean People's Army, it held a military parade as usual, showcasing its intercontinental ballistic missiles. Of course, military and political high-ranking figures are present. But this year, some key members of the country's Politburo, the communist regime's highest political cabinet, were not present at the parade. They were supposed to be there. This is because in the weeks leading up to the parade, Kim Jong-un is said to have replaced five of the 12 officials in the party secretariat and seven of the 17-member Politburo. Kim Jong-un was young and inexperienced when he came to power. His early years were particularly dangerous, as his authority was most in question.

The fear of betrayal and backstabbing from established figures was high. So that is exactly what his father did to consolidate power. He replaced about 80 percent of the Politburo members just days before he died in 2010, so that his son could take power without challenge. At a party conference a few months after taking power, Kim Jong replaced at least another 42 percent of the Politburo members, and another 13 percent in 2023. Earlier in 2012, Vice Minister of the Army Kim Chol was sentenced to death for drinking and causing a ruckus during the official mourning period following the death of Kim Jong Il. North Korean army chief Ri Yong Ho, who even helped train Kim Jong Un to take power from his father, was reportedly executed for dissenting over economic policy. In 2017, Kim Jong Un's half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, who was once considered the heir apparent to the Kim family, was also allegedly killed by Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Nam, who had been in exile in China for speaking out for political reform, was killed in February 2017 at Kuala Lumpur airport with a nerve agent. His powerful uncle Jang Song Thaek, who was Kim's literal guardian, was also executed. In December 2013, the 67-year-old Jang allegedly tried to overthrow his nephew, but many analysts believe that this could be another precautionary step taken by the new young leader. These are just a few examples of the purges carried out in North Korea. In this, the Kim family has not only removed those who oppose the country's supreme leader's policies, but also removed any thorn in the side of keeping power. They have also removed the fear of any possible coup. The secrecy of these purges is crucial to the Kim family's security and survival in power. But that does not mean that people have never tried to get rid of them. There have been several times when North Korean coup plotters have come very close to overthrowing the Kim family. The most famous of these occurred in the early post-war period. Kim Il-sung, the founder and longest-serving supreme leader of North Korea, faced the strongest opposition and pressure from pro-Chinese and pro-Soviet groups within the country. One of these was the Soviet Koreans, who were ethnic Koreans who had been born or raised in Russia and returned to Korea after the war. Many of them fought in the Red Army, like Kim Il-sung. In the early years of Pyongyang's development after World War II, the North Korean Communist Party was closely linked to the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, another key group in this coup attempt was the Yan faction. They were pro-Chinese communists and were formed from Korean exiles who had joined the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Many of them fought in the Chinese army. That is why they were more loyal to Mao Zedong. Although most of them eventually merged into the North Korean Workers' Party. But in the mid-1950s, these important Korean parties in the political system were more closely linked to the political culture and, more importantly, the military of neighboring countries than to their own country. Kim knew that he had to eliminate these parties to consolidate power. But unfortunately, de-Stalinization was underway in the Soviet Union at the same time.

In other words, the then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev was trying to reform Soviet politics by taking it out of Stalin's extremely authoritarian regime. In the summer of 1956, Khrushchev summoned Kim to Moscow for six weeks. In simple terms, he asked him to come on his way. At that time, the leaders of the Soviet and Chinese parties met to plan to attack Kim after his return to the country. But Kim's loyalists, many of whom were indirectly involved in the conspiracy, eventually backed down. They turned against the opposition. Apart from the fear of punishment, a major reason for this was that Kim's opponents were seen as outsiders and foreign agents. Whereas King was seen as a true Korean. And for most party members, a ruthless Korean leader was better than a leader loyal to China or Russia. You can probably guess what happened next. More purges were carried out. Many members of both parties fled to China and the Soviet Union to escape the purges. Although China and the Soviet Union advised Kim not to carry out the purges, he did not listen. By 1959, more than 25 percent of the members of the National Assembly had been removed. By the late 1960s, every member of both parties had been expelled or executed. In the 1990s, another coup attempt occurred in North Korea. This coup attempt, which occurred around the time of Kim Il Sung's death in 1994, is not surprising, as the North Korean people were facing extreme food shortages and famine. This resulted in riots, strikes, and even the beating of food distribution officials. It is estimated that more than one million people in the country died in the famine. In addition, North Korea lost its largest trading partner with the collapse of the Soviet Union. North Korea's other ally, China, was not there to handle the situation. As a result, the situation was gradually getting out of control. In such a situation, a mass uprising was only a matter of time. Even protests had already started in various regions. At that time, a part of the North Korean People's Army and the Seventh Corps based in Hamhue headquarters developed their coup plan. More than 30 high-ranking reformist officials decided to stage an uprising just when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was visiting the country. They wanted to tell the international community that they needed their support. But this time the Kim family won again. All the conspirators were arrested before the IAEA could get there. Since the United States was pressuring North Korea to allow the IAEA to inspect its secret nuclear facilities, North Korea felt that the IAEA was violating its sovereignty and was acting as a puppet of the United States. As a result, the following year, in 1994, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This closed the way for the agency, which it saw as a US puppet, to inspect North Korea's nuclear program. Meanwhile, in 1993, when the conspiracy plan centered on the IAEA was foiled, another military unit in Sinuiju staged a small-scale rebellion. But they, too, were defeated, and the rebels were later sentenced to death. In the meantime, there was no sign of abating the workers' riots in various places due to the impact of the famine. On the other hand, in 1995, 10 military officers were sentenced to death on charges of plotting to assassinate Kim Jong-il.

Conflicting reports and allegations by the Kim family that such an incident had occurred have been consistently denied. Perhaps the most significant coup attempt in North Korea during this period of extreme instability was the attempted coup by the 6th Army Corps in Chongjin. It is believed that this coup attempt took place in 1995. The 6th Army was upset by Pyongyang's decision not to send food to provinces such as Hamhung during a famine. They planned to seize Chongjin's communications center, the port, some missile launch sites, and the university. They would then call on the 7th Corps on the coast of Hamhung to join them, and together they would advance towards Pyongyang to arrest political insiders and take control of the country's governance. However, the most important part of this plan was to take control of the missile installations in the region. Because they could use that advantage to claim control of the missile installations. But again, the State Security Department knew about this conspiracy in advance. They raided the Chongqing installation and arrested everyone involved before the coup began. Some reports say that the head of the Sixth Corps, Kim Yongchun, himself went to the State Security Department and leaked information against his corps. There is also a story that Korean soldiers trained at the Soviet Union's military academy returned to North Korea after the death of Supreme Leader Kim Il Sung and were later involved in multiple coup attempts. Between 30 and 40 of these military officers are alleged to have been involved in a plot to assassinate Kim Jong-un by turning their tanks on him during a military parade in 1992, and some believe they may have been involved in the Sixth Corps' coup attempt. Some experts believe that the Sixth Corps' coup failed because Kim Jong-il had already planned to remove them. They were taking over much of the lucrative trade along the Chinese border. But a famine at the time led to many ordinary soldiers starving to death, which may have led to a mutiny out of desperation. But luck was not on their side. They were arrested before the coup could be carried out. In this incident, around 400 officers were executed, imprisoned, or disappeared. That is, a major unit of their army was eliminated during the country's most extreme economic and political crisis.

But whatever happens, everything proves how unlikely a coup in North Korea is to succeed. Because whenever a coup plan has come to light, the Kim family and the ruling elite have been able to do it in advance, and of course, the purges that have been carried out since then have killed or eliminated all anti-state forces, which has created a situation in which it has not been possible to carry out a successful coup because all the opposition forces are either already dead or imprisoned in labor camps. At the same time, there is no way to say that the number of these high-ranking officials who wanted to carry out a coup was very large. Because top political and military officials are so accustomed to a lot of cash and a luxurious lifestyle that they have no desire to change their situation. These followers, who rose from ordinary positions to high positions, are indebted to Kim in every way, and they know very well that if Kim falls, their fall is inevitable. This makes them more loyal to the Qing family and has no interest in joining any coup attempt. Meanwhile, ordinary soldiers and officials are rarely deployed to their hometowns. Instead, they are sent to remote areas. In this way, the fear of a coup is greatly reduced by blocking close contact with their colleagues at work. Although this authoritarian rule and suppression of opponents are always seen in a dictatorial regime. However, in the modern era, the Kim family's long-term hold on power is quite remarkable and unique. It is very rare in history for a family to rule a country with extreme authority for such a long time. Now you may ask, aren't Western powers interfering here?

Broadly speaking, there is no shortage of examples of the United States being involved in overthrowing the governments of other countries. Especially when they don't listen to the United States.

Why doesn't the United States itself, or through the NATO coalition, or a coup d'état, remove the Qing family? Especially when they are so good at overthrowing governments through coups. The main reason why no foreign power has succeeded in changing the regime in North Korea is that they are more powerful than you think. The first problem is that the possibility of rebellion from among ordinary citizens is low. Because there is a three-generation rule or a three-generation punishment rule. Not only is one person sent to prison for treason, but also three generations of his family are sent.

So a failed attempt at rebellion there means a curse on his family. Meanwhile, the second problem with foreign powers' attempts to aid a coup or rebellion is that the CIA's usual strategy does not work in North Korea. Washington's strategy of destabilizing the country by supporting political opposition parties, helping to organize protests, and funding organizations such as pro-democracy NGOs to incite the population is impossible in North Korea because the country is so isolated.

Such organizations have no way of entering the country. The United States was able to incite revolutions in post-Soviet countries such as Armenia, Georgia, and Ukraine. Because freedom of information played a big role in those countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union. North Korea has no opportunity to sow the seeds of political revolution through the US government's Democracy Assistance Programs. Because even in this information age, this country is practically isolated. And that says a lot. North Korea's borders are practically flawless. The idea that any pro-democracy group could enter there and have any influence is unrealistic. Especially considering how tight Kim Jong Un's control over the country is at the moment. We have seen before how quickly he takes action when any South Korean media enters the country. Apart from the isolation aspect, North Korea is a very dangerous military power. Of course, you know about their nuclear arsenal. But it is still the most important obstacle in international relations. Under Kim Jong-un, the number of missile launches has increased 10 times compared to his father's. The youngest leader, Kim, knows what his advantage is. So if the North Korean regime knew that there was some kind of Western conspiracy to overthrow Kim Jong-un and they thought that this was a threat to the survival of the Kim family and the existence of the country, then they would stop them from launching nuclear bombs at Seoul or even Washington, D.C. if they thought the United States was behind it. It may sound unbelievable, but it is beyond you and me to imagine what the Kim family could do to hold on to power. However, North Korea not only has nuclear weapons but also one of the world's largest artillery forces. Their conventional forces are also huge. They have the world's fourth-largest army. With an estimated 1.2 million 1.2 million soldiers. In addition to one of the world's largest nuclear arsenals, they have chemical and biological weapons and, despite UN Security Council sanctions, they are developing and testing ballistic missiles. When it comes to playing with risks, North Korea is an unexpected power or dark horse, and for this reason, it is not possible for foreign powers to openly support any coup or try to incite a revolution. The biggest risk is for South Korea, especially Seoul. The number of artillery shells aimed at Seoul around Pyongyang and on the Korean border would reduce the city to rubble within hours, and given the close relationship between Putin and Kim or the support of the Chinese Communist Party, a military operation in North Korea could be seen as a Western attack on the alliance. This could create new dangers. For now, there is no prospect of the Kim family falling from power in North Korea. Although predictions of the family's downfall have long been made.

However, many analysts believe that there are signs of weakness in Kim's control. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published a report in 2024. According to their report, North Korea's economic problems have reached a new low. Because they continue to spend up to 30 percent of their GDP on defense despite chronic food shortages. The ideological education and fear instilled in the public through forced labor camps and the death penalty have begun to lose some of their intensity. At the same time, the iron-hard culture of loyalty is not what it used to be. In addition, uncertainty has been created around the fourth generation of the Kim family. Kim Jong is reportedly training his daughter, Kim Joo-ye, to be his successor. This could create a major internal problem. Usually, when the time comes, disputes over succession are always a major concern. However, the new geopolitical context is forcing everyone, including North Korea, to rethink international politics. Only time will tell whether the Qing dynasty's rule will be strengthened or undermined in this situation.