End of the American Empire

No empire lasts forever. The Dutch, British, and even the once mighty Roman empires all fell. Now, another name may be joining that list. For nearly 100 years, the American empire has maintained its sole dominance on the world stage. With just 4 percent of the world's population, it accounts for 20 percent of the world's income, and this one country alone spends nearly 40 percent of the world's total military budget. But this situation is changing rapidly. Since 2018, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest economy. For decades, China has been advancing plans to position itself at the center of a new global order. It's just waiting for the right time. Since 2010, China has invested more than a trillion dollars in developing countries around the world. They have created strategic allies for the future. On the other hand, the world order formed under the leadership of America now seems to be much more fragile than before. The country's public debt is increasing gradually, and paying off interest now costs one-sixth of the annual budget. And the trend of globalization or globalization in recent decades is now going in the opposite direction. The world order that America has built for many generations is slowly eroding. All the reckless decisions of the government on tariffs seem to be going through a very unstable period. Of course, this is not just a matter of any one leader. This is a time when an empire begins to believe in its immortality. Even when its foundations are crumbling from within. The question is not just about Trump. The question is whether America has reached a point of no return. Will the world led by America survive, or are we already witnessing the beginning of the rise of another new world power? Let's try to trace its origins. Just a few decades ago, if someone had said that the American empire would collapse so soon, everyone would have dismissed it as ridiculous. In the 1990s, the United States was busy celebrating the collapse of the Soviet Union. The dollar was already dominant in the world. But then it became the world's sole dominant currency. By 1995, 71 percent of global currency reserves were in the US dollar. The United States had officially become the backbone of the world's financial system, and more importantly, capitalism and democracy, the foundations of American society, were rapidly spreading around the world. Even long-time rivals and opponents of capitalism, such as Russia, Poland, and Vietnam, were beginning to change their positions. The American empire was then in a position of supreme power. But while the United States was basking in its post-World War II glory, a relatively poor and insignificant country on the other side of the Pacific was quietly laying the groundwork for its own economic future. China’s plans in the 1990s would transform its economy and the entire structure of the global system. China’s economy was growing at a rate of 9 percent a year, lifting millions of its people out of extreme poverty. But policymakers in Washington were not worried about this at all. Instead, they saw it as a major victory. In their eyes, another communist country had realized the virtues of a market economy. That was the big deal. When China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2000, then-US President Bill Clinton saw it not just as a trade deal. He saw it as a turning point for China's future. In his words, "By joining the WTO, China is not only agreeing to buy our products; they are also embracing one of the greatest values ​​of democracy: economic freedom." Although China was still a one-party authoritarian state, many in the United States thought it was a temporary thing. The US believed that as China developed, it would move towards democracy. In the eyes of Americans, China was proof that capitalism had triumphed. Between 1995 and 2010, Chinese exports to the United States grew from about $100 billion to more than $1.5 trillion. But at that time, Washington's leaders failed to understand a profound fact: that even rocks erode as water drips.

In fact, China was not changing, but rather slowly and patiently changing its position on the world stage. Usually, during economic development, some changes are seen within each country. In the beginning, these countries' main products were agricultural products, and most of the people made their living through agricultural work. But over time, people started leaving the countryside and moving to the cities, and a large portion of the workers went to the industrial and manufacturing sectors. This is exactly what happened in the case of China. Between 1990 and 2020, the size of China's manufacturing sector increased from about $100 billion to about $5 trillion. That is more than a 50-fold increase. China officially became the world's factory, and American consumers also became the biggest buyers of those products. 97 percent of laptops and 78 percent of smartphones bought in the United States are made in China. However, China was not only making technology products. China supplied 80 percent of the sporting goods and 83 percent of the toys used in the United States. While America appeared to be independent from the outside, it was actually becoming much more dependent on China, and this was happening in secret. To put it simply, from the consumer's perspective, this picture doesn't seem so bad at first. Because the American people are able to buy more products at much lower prices than before, and when cheap Chinese products start coming into the United States, Americans start buying more. They start filling their homes with cheap goods. But without realizing it, they are slowly getting themselves into a terrible financial trap. In the early 2000s, Americans had $1.8 trillion in consumer debt. But by 2020, it had grown to more than a trillion dollars. More Americans are now struggling to make ends meet than ever before. Not only are ordinary people living on debt, but the US government has also become dependent on debt. By 2024, the US government debt reached 36 trillion dollars. One dollar out of every six dollars in the government budget is spent on paying off debt interest. And this trend shows no signs of stopping. It is estimated that by 2034, this debt will increase to 54 trillion dollars. This means that on average, every American citizen will have about 1.5 lakh dollars in debt. Due to unnecessary spending for a long time, the country is now on the verge of a terrible financial crisis. However, this is not just an economic problem; it is a classic symptom of a falling empire. Hundreds of empires have risen and fallen in history. But their fall was almost the same. This fall never happens in a day. Rather, it is a process that has been going on for the longest time, over many years. And it always starts with a massive debt explosion. For example, in the 17th century, the Dutch Empire was the world's leading financial power. It seemed as if no one could stop them. But gradually the government began to increase spending beyond its means and began to spend without thinking about the future. By the end of the 1800s, the Dutch Empire was in decline, and the signs were clear. Government spending was increasing at an abnormal rate, there was a huge gap between the rich and the poor, and an overreliance on foreign goods. Today, the United States is in much the same position. After decades of wasteful spending and dependence on cheap imports, the country is standing on a fragile foundation that could collapse at any time. But not only empires that have empires fallen, history has seen the rise of empires that have risen, usually following a certain pattern. First comes a period of rapid economic growth. Factories are built, exports increase, and living standards improve rapidly. Then comes a phase of expanding international influence. Through trade, diplomacy, and strategic investment, they consolidate their position around the world. Over time, this new power gradually displaces the old system and shapes the entire global politics in such a way that they are at the center. Today's China fits that description perfectly. For decades, China has been preparing itself to take a position at the center of a new world order. Their strategy was simple: invest now, seize in the future. Unlike the United States or Europe, China is not a consumption-based economy. In America, 70 percent of its gross domestic product is spent on consumption. In the UK, this rate is 65 percent.

But in China, it is only 39 percent. That is, Chinese people save money without spending it, and from these savings, China has built a huge treasury. The government and large institutions are using it for long-term investments. For example, high-speed rail, green energy, and modern chip factories, all these have been built with China's saved money.

By the end of 2023, the total savings of the Chinese people stood at a record 19.1 trillion dollars. This is an average of 57,000 dollars per person. However, this money is not only being invested within China. Since 2010, they have been focusing on the global stage. With one goal in mind: to build a new world order. The main foundation of China's strategy was the Belt and Road Initiative. Since 2013, China has spent more than $1.3 trillion on building ports, railways, power plants, etc., in developing countries.

This project has reached more than 150 countries so far. It has even spread to Europe and has involved about 75 percent of the world's population. China has also invested heavily in the development of Africa. This was a great strategic move for China. It is estimated that by 2050, at least 25 percent of the world's population will live on this continent. In the past decade alone, China has financed the construction of 12,000 kilometers of roads and built more than 20 ports and 80 power plants. In contrast, the amount of development activities in the United States is comparatively small. The organization called US Aid, which is equivalent to China's project, has built only 800 kilometers of roads in the last 30 years. Which is 15 times less than China. Basically, the international policy of the United States has long been more focused on something else than creating opportunities. Maybe you guessed it right. Towards a war policy that shows no signs of ending. Since 2000, the United States has been involved in more than 72 foreign conflicts. One example is the invasion of Iraq. This war alone has cost the country about 2.2 trillion dollars. For decades, the United States has sought to position itself as the world's leader. It has sought to spread democratic capitalism around the world, sometimes by force. China, on the other hand, has taken a completely different path. It does not seek to change foreign governments or impose its own political system. Its sole objective is to increase its influence. This does not mean that it is engaging in conflict. Rather, what is happening is the opposite: China does not want to occupy, but wants to work with any country in the world, regardless of their ideals or governance. Where the United States wants to shape countries according to its own principles, China accepts those countries as they are. Now we are seeing the number of these two opposing worldviews, and the Chinese are gradually winning here. In 2023, for the first time in history, China's popularity in Africa will surpass the United States, and the US presence is gradually weakening day by day. They are not able to keep up with China's machine-like efficiency and strategy. But the truth is that this power shift is not only happening abroad. A silent but destructive economic change, deindustrialization, is also taking place within the United States. In the early 1960s, about 30 percent of total jobs in America were manufacturing or factory-based. But by 2020, it had fallen to just 8 percent. As trade restrictions around the world eased, American companies were no longer limited to manufacturing at home. Instead, American companies were looking abroad, where production costs were lower and profits were higher. The impact of this change was slow at first. Textile mills in the American South closed one by one as production was moved to cheap labor countries in Asia. Steel towns like Pittsburgh’s Youngstown, which once housed hundreds of factories, began to quietly close. But once the change began, it was unstoppable. What had started slowly turned into a massive collapse. America’s manufacturing sector, once the engine of post-World War II prosperity, slowly disappeared. The sector that once provided stable and well-paid jobs for millions of people is now largely empty, and America has become completely dependent on China. But the problem does not end there. The industrial sector was once a force for balancing society. It was a good income opportunity, job security, and a path to progress for ordinary people. But now that this sector has been lost, many are struggling in a changing economy. An economy that is now largely capital, technology, and services. Manual labor or skill-based labor has lost all its luster. Now you may wonder, does all this matter at all? Since 1980, the American economy has grown more than twice as fast as in the developed world. So surely this growth has compensated for the loss of the industrial sector.

But the real problem is that these economic growth calculations do not tell us who is getting the extra money. In general, the average American is richer than ever before. But averages do not mean that everyone is getting better. If almost all of the income growth goes to the richest people in society, then most people's lives will not change. That is exactly what the statistics say, and that is exactly what has happened in America. Since 1970, the income of the middle and lower classes has declined as a proportion of total income in society, while the income of the rich has gradually increased. In other words, the country's wealth is being concentrated in their hands. Economic growth has made America's richest group very rich. Today, the top one percent of Americans own more than 30 percent of the country's total wealth, compared to about 22 percent in 2000. But this improvement has not benefited those living on low incomes. Since 2000, the average income of the lowest-income earners has remained roughly the same. About $28,000 a year. Meanwhile, the number of people in this bottom bracket has increased from a quarter to about 30 percent. While the entire country was celebrating the progress figures, in reality, a completely different story was happening in the lives of many people. While the rich were gradually taking a larger share of the income. The income of the middle-class and poor people has practically stagnated. The American Dream, where everyone can succeed with hard work and dedication, has now become a distant dream for many. What's worse is that in the last 40 years, home prices in America have skyrocketed. In the 1980s, the average home price was about $60,000. Today, the same house costs more than $400,000. That's an increase of more than 500 percent. But during that time, the real income of the poor did not increase at all. This low income and rising prices have increasingly frustrated the common people. Demands for change in the government system have begun to rise across the country. In 2024, that anger reached its peak. Trump won by a huge margin on the promise that he would take America back to its golden age, and his plan was, in one word, tariffs. His plan was very simple. By imposing taxes on imported goods, American companies would be forced to rethink their supply chains. To avoid these taxes, companies would bring their production back to America. As a result, the wheels of the industrial sector would turn again. And an additional benefit of this would be the collection of $ 1.8 trillion in revenue over 10 years. Which the government needs now. Because it is already drowning in massive debt. In some ways, imposing tariffs was a clever plan by Trump. But, as you know, not everything goes according to plan. That's why the Trump administration was forced to back down just 10 days after the announcement. So, where is the problem? Over the past 100 years, the entire world's economic system has been built on free trade and globalization, and the United States was at the center of it. When the architects of this free trade suddenly change their policies and impose massive tariffs, investors get scared, and one sector becomes a threat to this entire plan. That is the bond market. If investors lose confidence and start selling Treasury bonds in a hurry, interest rates suddenly rise. Remember, the US government has a debt of $36 trillion. Just a one percent increase in interest rates would cost the government an additional $300 billion every year. And if interest rates rise significantly, this debt could turn into a terrible financial crisis. But this is not just a failed policy. It is the kind of emotional, momentary decision that is seen at the turning point of declining empires. From Rome to Britain, all the great powers tried to maintain control by imposing tariffs and imposing one-room tariffs when they began to lose their dominance.

Remember, this sudden retreat by the United States was not a strategy. Rather, it was a danger signal. So the question is, where is the American world order now? For decades, the United States was the sole ruler of the world stage. Its influence was unwavering, but now there are cracks in that place. Growing debt and income inequality are gradually weakening the walls of American power. On the other hand, China has long since girded its loins with a long-term plan. While China was enjoying American debt, it was saving and building the industry and infrastructure of the future. The difference between these two countries is now very clear. On the one hand, a country burdened with debt and drowning in short-term worries, on the other hand, a country moving forward with long-term growth and stability. While the United States is struggling with its economic challenges, the whole world is looking at this question: Is the era of American dominance coming to an end? And now, the way things are going, it seems that a Chinese century is not only possible but almost impossible.